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Subject and Keywords:
Symulacja monte carlo ; Monte carlo simulations ; Water distribution system ; Maintenance costs ; Convex hazard rate function ; Present value of money ; Kiefer-wolfowitz method ; One-factor vasicek model ; System dystrybucji wody ; Koszty eksploatacji ; Wypukła funkcja intensywności uszkodzeń ; Wartość obecna pieniądza ; Metoda kiefera-wolfowitza ; Model jednoczynnikowy vasicka
In the paper I focus on an evaluation of maintenance costs of a water distribution system (WDS), if a concept of a value of money in time is taken into account. Contrary to more classical approaches, instead of a constant yield, a strictly stochastic process of an interest rate is assumed. Such an assumption presents uncertain, future behaviour of the yield in a more correct, realistic way. Moments of failures of connections in a WDS are generated using the Monte Carlo simulations via a new kinf of a convex hazard rate function (HRF), which is proposed in this paper. Moreover, quality of a pipeline and a number of previous failures have direct influence on statistical properties of this introduced HRF. Apart from an analysis of the simulated output, the Kiefer-Wolfowitz method is used for a better adjustment of one of parameters of a WDS - deterministic and unconditional replacement time of each pipe. Algorithms, for both simulations of the failure moments for the introduced HRF and the optimization step, are also provided. Additionally, some examples of a WDS for a crisp and a fuzzified settings are statistically analysed.
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Projects co-financed by:
Operational Program Digital Poland, 2014-2020, Measure 2.3: Digital accessibility and usefulness of public sector information; funds from the European Regional Development Fund and national co-financing from the state budget.
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