In addition to direct negative effects in terms of morbidity and mortality, the pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 also has indirect negative effects that concerned, among others, the labour market. This study analysed changes in the unemployment rate that were observed at the level of Polish Local Administrative Units (LAU) during the ten months of the pandemic. Both annual and monthly data were applied. Using cross-sectional and panel econometric modelling with spatial interactions it was shown that the observed increase in unemployment was strongly influenced by the share of employment in services, especially in less knowledge-intensive services such as: trade, accommodation and gastronomy. Moreover, it turns out that a higher share of women working in services was associated with a higher increase in unemployment than in the case of men working in services. Significant positive spatial relationships between local labour markets in LAUs were also identified. It was also shown that both the timing and severity of containment measures were significant. The strongest effect of the lockdown was observed three months after its introduction, while after six months the effect was significantly smaller. The study's findings may be important for post-pandemic recovery plans.References:
Adams-Prassl, A., Boneva, T., Golin, M., Rauh, C. (2020). Inequality in the impact of the coronavirus shock: Evidence from real time surveys. Journal of Public Economics, 189, 104245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104245
Alfaro, L., Chari, A., Greenland, A., Schott, P. (2020). Aggregate and firm-level stock returns during pandemics, in real time (No. 26950). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26950
Alon, T., Doepke, M., Olmstead-Rumsey, J., Tertilt, M. (2020). This time it's different: The role of women's employment in a pandemic recession (No. 13562). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27660
Anselin, L. (1988). Spatial econometrics: Methods and models. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Springer Science & Business Media.
Anselin, L. (1995). Local indicators of spatial association - LISA. Geographical Analysis, 27(2), 93-115. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1995.tb00338.x
Anselin, L., Bera, A.K., Florax, R., Yoon, M.J. (1996). Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 26(1), 77-104. https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-0462(95)02111-6
Baltagi, B.H., Song, S.H., Koh, W. (2003). Testing panel data regression models with spatial error correlation. Journal of Econometrics, 117(1), 123-150. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00120-9
Bartik, A.W., Bertrand, M., Lin, F., Rothstein, J., Unrath, M. (2020). Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis (No. 27613). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27613
Buera, F.J., Fattal-Jaef, R.N., Neumeyer, P.A., Shin, Y. (2020). The economic ripple effects of COVID-19 (No. 9631). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w28704
Cajner, T., Crane, L.D., Decker, R.A., Grigsby, J., Hamins-Puertolas, A., Hurst, E., Kurz, C., Yildirmaz, A. (2020). The U.S. labor market during the beginning of the pandemic recession (No. 27159). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w28704
Carvalho, V.M., Hansen, S., Ortiz, Á., Garcia, J.R., Rodrigo, T., Rodriguez Mora, S., Ruiz de Aguirre, P. (2020). Tracking the COVID-19 crisis with high-resolution transaction data. CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP14642. https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14642
Christiano, L.J., Eichenbaum, M.S., Trabandt, M. (2015). Understanding the great recession. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7, 110-167. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20140104
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., Weber, M. (2020). Labor markets during the COVID-19 crisis: A preliminary view (No. 27017). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27017
Congressional Research Service. (2021). Unemployment rates during the COVID-19 pandemic: In brief. Washington: Congressional Research Service.
Dingel, J.I., Neiman, B. (2020). How many jobs can be done at home? Journal of Public Economics, 189, 104235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104235
Eichenbaum, M.S., Rebelo, S., Trabandt, M. (2020). The macroeconomics of the epidemics (No. 26882). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26882
Elhorst, J.P. (2014). Spatial econometrics. from cross-sectional data to spatial panels. Springer Briefs in Regional Science. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40340-8
ESPON. (2020). Geography of COVID-19 outbreak and first policy answers in European regions and cities. Luxembourg. [15 March 2021] https://www.espon.eu/geocov
EUROSTAT. (2020). COVID-19 labour effects across the income distribution - Statistics Explained. [13 March 2021] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=COVID-19_abour_effects_across_the_income_distribution
EUROSTAT. (2021). Labour market in the light of the COVID 19 pandemic - quarterly statistics - Statistics Explained. [15 March 2021] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Labour_market_in_the_light_of_the_COVID_19_pandemic_-_quarterly_statistics
Faria-e-Castro, M. (2021). Fiscal policy during a pandemic. Working Paper (No. 2020-006G). https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2020.006
Hale, T., Angrist, N., Goldszmidt, R., Kira, B., Petherick, A., Phillips, T., Webster, S., Cameron-Blake, E., Hallas, L., Majumdar, S., Tatlow, H. (2021). A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker). Nature Human Behaviour, 5(4), 529-538. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01079-8
Hoynes, H., Miller, D.L., Schaller, J. (2012). Who suffers during recessions? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26(3), 27-48. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.26.3.27
ILO. (2021). Latest labour market developments. [10 March 2021] https://www.ilo.org/global/research/global-reports/weso/2021/WCMS_795453/lang--en/index.htm
Juranek, S., Paetzold, J., Winner, H., Zoutman, F. (2020). Labor market effects of COVID-19 in Sweden and its neighbors: Evidence from Novel Administrative Data. NHH Dept. of Business and Management Science Discussion Paper, (2020/8). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3660832
Kahn, L.B., Lange, F., Wiczer, D.G. (2020). Labor demand in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from vacancy postings and UI claims (No. w27061). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27061
Kapička, M., Rupert, P. (2020). Labor markets during pandemics. [11 May 2021] http://www.covid-19-research-conduit.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Kapička_Rupert_Epidemics_latest.pdf
Kaplan, G., Moll, B., Violante, G. (2020). The great lockdown and the big stimulus: Tracing the pandemic possibility frontier for the US (No. w27794). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27794
Kivi, L.H. (2019). Spatial interactions of regional labour markets in Europe. Available at SSRN 3330778. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3330778
LaSage, J., Pace, R.K. (2009). Introduction to spatial econometrics. New York: Chapman and Hall/CRC. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781420064254
Meinen, P., Serafini, R. (2021). The economic impact of the pandemic - drivers of regional differences. Economic Bulletin Boxes, 1, European Central Bank.
Mongey, S., Weinberg, A. (2020). Characteristics of workers in low work-from-home and high personalproximity occupations. Chicago: White Paper.
OECD. (2020a). Evaluating the initial impact of COVID-19 containment measures on economic activity - OECD. [15 March 2021] https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=126_126496-evgsi2gmqj&title=Evaluating_the_initial_impact_of_COVID-19_containment_measures_on_economic_activity/
OECD. (2020b). The territorial impact of COVID-19: Managing the crisis across levels of government. [05 March 2021] http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/the-territorial-impact-of-covid-19-managing-the-crisis-across-levels-of-government-d3e314e1/
Patacchini, E., Zenou, Y. (2007). Spatial dependence in local unemployment rates. Journal of Economic Geography, 7(2), 169-191. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbm001
Pośpiech, E. (2016). Modelowanie przestrzenne charakterystyk rynku pracy. Studia Ekonomiczne. Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach, 265, 69-79.
Semerikova, E. (2015). Spatial patterns of German labour market: Panel data analysis of regional unemployment. In C. Mussida, F. Pastore (Eds.), Geographical labour market imbalances: Recent explanations and cures (pp. 37-64). Berlin-Heidelberg, Germany: Springer.
World Bank. (2020). Annual Report 2020. [05 March 2021] https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/annual-report/
World Bank. (2020). Planning for the economic recovery from COVID-19: A sustainability checklist for policymakers. [05 March 2021] https://blogs.worldbank.org/climatechange/planning-economicrecovery-covid-19-coronavirus-sustainability-checklist-policymakers/