Given the economic crisis related to the current COVID-19 pandemic, decision makers need to better understand how to effectively allocate their limited resources to support the most severely affected regions. In this context our research seeks to identify the regions that are economically vulnerable, as well as those that are more resilient, using information on the industries negatively impacted by travel restrictions and social distancing measures. With this aim in view, we propose a vulnerability index calculated using regions’ location coefficients by activity and the forecasted decline of these activities at national level and test it for the Romanian economy. We argue that regional specialisation itself is not the source of the current problems, but the high dependence of many regional economies on economic activities directly affected by measures designed to mitigate the epidemic impact is the root cause of future economic decline.
AISR. (2020). The Italian Section of Regional Science is calling for contributions on COVID-19 and territorial impact. ERSA. https://ersa.org/2020/04/20/aisre-special-call-on-covid-19/
Anselin, L. (2005). Exploring Spatial Data with GeoDaTM.
A Workbook. Urbana: Spatial Analysis Laboratory Department of Geography, University of Illinois. https://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/~gisteac/fspat/geodaworkbook.pdf
Anselin, L., Rey, S. (1991). Properties of tests for spatial dependence in linear regression models. Geographical Analysis, 23, 112-131.
Bachtrögler, J., Firgo, M., Fritz, O., Klien, M., Mayerhofer, P., Piribauer, P., Streicher, G. (2020). Regional differences in the economic vulnerability to the current COVID-19 crisis in Austria. WIFO Working Paper. https://ersa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/WIFO_Regional-differences_economic-vulnerability_Austria.pdf
Bailey, D., Clark, J., Colombelli, A., Corradini, C., De Propris, L., Derudder, B., Fratesi, U., Fritsch, M., Harrison, J., Hatfield, M., Kemeny, T., Kogler, D.F., Lagendijk, A., Lawton, P., Ortega-Argilés, R., Iglesias Otero, C., Usai, S. (2020). Regions in a time of pandemic. Regional Studies, 54 (9), 1163-1174. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2020.1798611
Benet, V. (2020). Spending to counteract coronavirus creates to "tilt to green". https://www.ebrd.com/news/2020/spending-to-counteract-coronavirus-creates-chance-to-tilt-to-green-.html
Boumahdi, I., Zaoujal, N., Fadlallah, A. (2020). Differentiated territorial effect of COVID-19 on the tourism sector in Morocco. RSPP Working Paper, Nº 2020.001 - Special Series on COVID-19. https://www.regionalscience.org/images/PDF/WP/RSPPworkingpaper.2020.001.pdf
Creţan, R., Light, D. (2020). COVID-19 in Romania: Transnational labour, geopolitics, and the Roma 'outsiders'. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 61(4), 559-572. https://doi.org/10.1080/15387216.2020.1780929
Cuadrado-Roura, J.R., Maroto, A. (2016). Unbalanced regional resilience to the economic crisis in Spain: a tale of specialisation and productivity. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 9(1), 153-178. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsv034
Dabson, B., Heflin, C., Miller, K. (2012). Regional Resilience. Research and Policy Brief. RUPRI-Rural Futures Lab, Harry S Truman School of Public Affairs, University of Missouri. Retrieved from https://www.nado.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/RUPRI-Regional-Resilience-Research-Policy-Brief.pdf [8 July 2020].
De Propris, L., Bailey, D. (2020). Industry 4.0 and regional transformations. London: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429057984
Druică, E., Musso, F., Ianole-Călin, R. (2020). Optimism bias during the COVID-19 pandemic: Empirical evidence from Romania and Italy. Games, 11(3), 39. https://doi.org/10.3390/g11030039
EC. (2020). Jobs and economy during coronavirus pandemic. European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/health/coronavirus-response/jobs-and-economy-duringcoronavirus-pandemic_ro
EBRD. (2020). From shock to recovery. Regional economic prospects. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. https://www.ebrd.com/what-we-do/economic-research-and-data/rep.html
EBRD. (2020). COVID-19: Early estimates of the damage, uncertain prospects - September 2020 - Output in the EBRD regions. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. https://www.ebrd.com/what-we-do/economic-research-and-data/rep.html
Florence, P. (1939). Report of the location of industry. Political and Economic Planning. London.
Gallopín, G.C. (2006). Linkages among vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity. Global Environmental Change, 16(3), 293-303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.004
Gombos, K., Herczeg, R., Eross, B., Kovacs, S.Z., Kiss, S., Szakacs, Z., Imrei, M., Szentesi, A., Nagy, A., Fabian, A., Hegyi, P., Gyensesi, A. (2020). Translating scientific knowledge to government decision makers has crucial importance in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic. Population and Health Management (published online: 2 September 2020). https://doi.org/10.1089/pop.2020.0159
Gong, H., Hassink, R., Tan, J., Huang, D. (2020). Regional resilience in times of a pandemic crisis: The case of COVID-19 in China. Tijdschrift voor economische en sociale geografie (published online: 19 June 2020). https://doi.org/10.1111/tesg.12447
Goschin, Z., Constantin, D.L. (2010). The geography of the financial crisis and policy response in Romania. In G. Gorzelak, Ch. Goh (Eds.), Financial crisis in Central and Eastern Europe - from similarity to diversity (pp. 161-191). Warsaw: Barbara Budrich Publishers, Wydawnictwo Naukowe Scholar Publishing House.
Hudec, O., Manakova, N., Šiserová, M. (2017). Which cities are vulnerable to the global economic crisis? Evidence related to Slovak cities. Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management, 12(2), 30-47. http://um.ase.ro/no122/3.pdf
Irving, J. (2020). Pandemic vulnerability index. https://www.regionalstudies.org/news/working-in-lockdown-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-an-opportunity-to-lend-our-expertise/
Ivanov, D., Dolgui, A. (2020). Viability of intertwined supply networks: Extending the supply chain resilience angles towards survivability. A position paper motivated by COVID-19 outbreak. International Journal of Production Research, 58(10), 2904-2915. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2020.1750727
Kitsos, A. (2020). Local resilience and the COVID-19 economic crisis. ERSA. https://ersa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/COVID-19-KITSOS.pdf
Kitsos, A. (2020). The uneven spatial footprint of the COVID-19 shutdown. ERSA. https://ersa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Blog_Resilience.pdf
KPMG. (2020). Chief economist's note: COVID-19's regional jigsaw. https://home.kpmg/uk/en/home/ insights/2020/05/chief-economist-note-new.html [20 July 2020]
Kydland, F., Prescott, E. (1982). Time to build and aggregate fluctuations. Econometrica, 50(6), 1345-1370. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913386
LeSage, J.P., Pace, R.K. (2009). Introduction to spatial econometrics. New York: Chapman and Hall/CRC. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781420064254
Mazza, P.I., Mavri, M. (2020). Is this the wright time to talk about Cloud Regions? The contribution of COVID-19 to concepts of Regional Development. ERSA. https://ersa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Note_MazzaMavri.pdf
McCoy, D. (2020). What exactly is the government's coronavirus strategy?. Queen Mary University of London. https://www.qmul.ac.uk/media/news/2020/pr/what-exactly-is-the-governments-coronavirus-strategy.html
NIS. (2020). Civilian employment by activity at the NACE-2 level, by development region and by county. TEMPO Online, National Institute of Statistics. http://statistici.insse.ro:8077/tempo-online/#/pages/tables/insse-table
NIS. (2020). Evaluation of COVID-19 impact on the economic environment in March and April 2020, Press Release, No. 104 / April 15, 2020, National Institute of Statistics. https://insse.ro/cms/ro/content/cercetare-experimentală-evaluarea-impactului-covid-19-asupra-mediului-economic-în-lunile-0
Niembro, A., Calá, C.D. (2020). A first exploratory analysis of the regional economic impact of COVID-19 in Argentina. ERSA. https://ersa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Niembro-Cala_Regional-Impact-of-COVID19-in-Argentina.pdf
NCSF. (2020). The current context of the Romanian economy and the impact of coronavirus on the main macroeconomic indicators. National Commission for Strategy and Forecasting. http://www.cnp.ro/user/repository/prognoze/Contextul_actual_al_economiei_romanesti_si_impactul_coronavirusului_asupra_principalilor_indicatori_macroeconomici.pdf
OECD. (2020). The territorial impact of COVID-19: managing the crisis across levels of government. https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=128_128287-5agkkojaaa&title=The-territorial-impact-of-covid19-managing-the-crisis-across-levels-of-government
Ortega-Argilés, R. (2020). Regions in a time of pandemic. ERSA. https://ersa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/WMREDI-Covid-19-Regions-in-time-of-pandemic-Ortega-Argiles-ERSA.pdf
Rebelo, S. (2005). Real business cycle models: Past, present and future. Northwestern University, NBER, and CEPR. https://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/rebelo/htm/rbc.pdf
Seeliger, L., Turok, I. (2013). Towards sustainable cities: Extending resilience with insights from vulnerability and transition theory. Sustainability, 5(5), 2108-2128. https://doi.org/10.3390/su5052108
Stiglitz, J. (2020). We need a better balance between globalization and self-reliance. Foreign Policy: How the Economy Will Look After the Coronavirus Pandemic. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/15/how-the-economy-will-look-after-the-coronavirus-pandemic/
UrbanizeHub. (2020). Ce orase din Romania vor fi cel mai putin afectate de criza post-COVID-19. UrbanizeHub - Politici urbane & Guvernanta. https://urbanizehub.ro/ce-orase-din-romania-vor-fi-cel-mai-putin-afectate-de-criza-post-covid-19/
Volintiru, C. (2020). Cum va arata economia dupa COVID-19. Dilema veche, 14-20 mai 2020. Retrieved from https://dilemaveche.ro/sectiune/tema-saptamanii/articol/cum-va-arata-economia-dupa-covid-19 [12 June 2020].
Williamson, E., Walker, A.J., Bhaskaran, K.J., Bacon, S., Bates, C., Morton, C.E., Cockburn, J. (2020). OpenSAFELY: Factors associated with COVID-19-related hospital death in the linked electronic health records of 17 million adult NHS patients. MedRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999
World Bank. (2020). Fighting COVID-19 (English). Europe and Central Asia economic update Washington D.C.: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/276301586361664871/Fighting-COVID-19
Operational Program Digital Poland, 2014-2020, Measure 2.3: Digital accessibility and usefulness of public sector information; funds from the European Regional Development Fund and national co-financing from the state budget.
Sep 27, 2021
Sep 27, 2021
|Goschin Z., Constantin D.-L. : Estimating the short-term economic impact of COVID-19 pandemic: A regional perspective||Sep 27, 2021|
Więckowski, Marek (1971– )
Stępień, Joanna Michalski, Tomasz Grabowski, Jakub Waszak, Przemysław Grabkowska, Maja Macul, Aleksandra Rojek, Jakub Jan
Parysek, Jerzy J. Mierzejewska, Lidia
Bernhauer, Karl Mager (18..-19..). Redaktor Kaiserlich-Königliches Militär-Geographisches Institut (Wiedeń). Instytucja sprawcza Wydawca
Pflügl (18..-19..). Redaktor Blaschke