Object structure
Title:

From Euphoria to Frustration: Institutionalizing Prognostic Research in the Polish People’s Republic, 1969–76

Subtitle:

Acta Poloniae Historica T. 116 (2017), Studies

Creator:

Becht, Lukas

Contributor:

Institute of History of the Polish Academy of Sciences ; Polish National Historical Committee

Publisher:

Instytut Historii Polskiej Akademii Nauk

Place of publishing:

Warszawa

Date issued/created:

2017

Description:

p. 277-299 ; 23 cm

Type of object:

Journal/Article

Subject and Keywords:

Poland - history - periodicals

Abstract:

In 1969 an interdisciplinary committee for long-term forecasting was created at the Polish Academy of Sciences. Together with the central planning authorities, statistical offices and every branch of government it constituted a system of prognostication which remained legally in place between 1971 and 1976. This article regards prognostication as an institutionalized experiment based on one of the key myths of modernity – that future events can be known and shaped. The genealogy of long-term forecasts in Poland dates back to pre-war experiences with state planning and transnational transfers of knowledge since 1956. After an outline of its pre-history, this article describes the construction and programmatic ideas of the prognostic system and asks how its functioning affected participants’ understandings of the future as a political category. Finally, this article makes the case that this state-run prognostication venture resulted in an amplitude of euphoria followed by frustration regarding future knowledge, which can be understood as an indirect but significant cultural symptom of the emerging political and economic crisis in the Polish People’s Republic beginning in 1976.

References:

Andersson Jenny and Rindzevičiūtė Eglė (eds.), Forging the Future: Transnational Perspectives on the History of Prediction (London et al., 2016).
Andersson Jenny, ‘The Great Future Debate and the Struggle for the World’, The American Historical Review, cxvii, 5 (2012), 1411–30.
Collier Stephen J., The Post-Soviet Social: Neoliberalism, Social Modernity, Biopolitics (Princeton and Oxford, 2011).
Hölscher Lucian (ed.), Die Zukunft des 20. Jahrhunderts. Dimensionen einer historischen Zukunftsforschung (Frankfurt am Main and New York, 2017).
Kolář Pavel, Der Poststalinismus. Ideologie und Utopie einer Epoche (Köln, Weimar and Wien, 2016).
Koselleck Reinhart, Vergangene Zukunft. Zur Semantik geschichtlicher Zeiten (Frankfurt am Main, 1979).
Plaggenborg Stefan, Experiment Moderne: Der sowjetische Weg (Frankfurt am Main et al., 2006).
Seefried Elke, Zukünfte. Aufstieg und Krise der Zukunftsforschung 1945–1980 (Berlin and Boston, 2015).

Relation:

Acta Poloniae Historica

Volume:

116

Start page:

277

End page:

299

Resource type:

Text

Detailed Resource Type:

Article : original article

Format:

application/pdf

Resource Identifier:

0001-6829 ; 10.12775/APH.2017.116.10

Source:

IH PAN, sygn. A.295/116 Podr. ; IH PAN, sygn. A.296/116 ; click here to follow the link

Language:

eng

Rights:

Creative Commons Attribution BY-ND 4.0 license

Terms of use:

Copyright-protected material. [CC BY-ND 4.0] May be used within the scope specified in Creative Commons Attribution BY-ND 4.0 license, full text available at: ; -

Digitizing institution:

Institute of History of the Polish Academy of Sciences

Original in:

Library of the Institute of History PAS

Projects co-financed by:

-

Access:

Open

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