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This paper presents a novel approach for allocation of spatially correlated data, such as emission inventories, to finer spatial scales, conditional on covariate information observable in a fine grid. Spatial dependence is modelled with the conditional autoregressive structure introduced into a linear model as a random effect. The maximum likelihood approach to inference is employed, and the optimal predictors are developed to assess missing values in a fine grid. An example of ammonia emission inventory is used to illustrate potential usefulness of the proposed technique. The results indicate that inclusion of a spatial dependence structure can compensate for less adequate covariate information, provided that the disaggregation is not carried too far. For the considered ammonia inventory, the fourfold allocation benefited greatly from incorporation of the spatial component, while for the ninefold allocation this advantage was limited, but still evident. In addition, the proposed method allowed to correct the prediction bias encountered for the upper range emissions in the linear regression models.
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Operational Program Digital Poland, 2014-2020, Measure 2.3: Digital accessibility and usefulness of public sector information; funds from the European Regional Development Fund and national co-financing from the state budget.
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