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First Country Studies Confirm System-Analytical Doubst of the Kyoto Protocol


Raport Badawczy = Research Report ; RB/20/2003


Jonas, Matthias. Autor ; Nilsson, Sten. Autor ; Compton, Keith. Autor ; Bun, Rostyslav. Autor ; Dachuk, Volodymyr. Autor ; Gusti, Mykola. Autor ; Hudz, Halyna. Autor ; Jęda, Waldemar Paweł. Autor ; Nahorski, Zbigniew Tadeusz. Autor


Instytut Badań Systemowych. Polska Akademia Nauk ; Systems Research Institute. Polish Academy of Sciences

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24 pages ; 21 cm ; Bibliography p. 24

Subject and Keywords:

Niepewność ; Weryfikacja ; Emisja gazów cieplarnianych ; Kyoto protocol ; Uncertainty ; Full carbon accounting ; Verification ; Net emission changes ; Austrian carbon database ; Bilans węglowy ; Protokół z kioto


The Kyoto Protocol (KP) requires an accounting system that is meant to separate anthropogenic (including natural but human-induced) from natural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This approach is not expedient for CO2; over and above the standard argument that humanity’s footprint on the carbon cycle is hard to distinguish from nature’s. The choice of favouring an accounting system, which includes the human-induced part of nature “by agreement” but may be faulty, over an accounting system, which includes all natural sources but exhibits great uncertainties, is crucial for compliance. The extent to which neglect of full carbon accounting (FCA) and uncertainty in the Kyoto policy process may threaten the compliance process is unknown. The recently completed country-scale FCA study of Austria, our second such case study (the first being of Russia), builds a bridge from FCA to partial accounting under the KP and also considers uncertainty. The studies point to significant gaps in the methodology behind the KP for accounting GHG emissions, some of which had been foreseen in the theory by studying carbon accounting vis-à-vis uncertainty on a systems-analysis basis, and assess how these gaps can be bridged.


Raport Badawczy = Research Report

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Creative Commons Attribution BY 4.0 license

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Copyright-protected material. [CC BY 4.0] May be used within the scope specified in Creative Commons Attribution BY 4.0 license, full text available at: ; -

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Systems Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences

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Library of Systems Research Institute PAS

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Operational Program Digital Poland, 2014-2020, Measure 2.3: Digital accessibility and usefulness of public sector information; funds from the European Regional Development Fund and national co-financing from the state budget.

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