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A Method for Modelling a Non-Stationary System.Greenhouse Gas Emission Case


Raport Badawczy = Research Report ; RB/31/2003


Nahorski, Zbigniew Tadeusz ; Jęda, Waldemar Paweł ; Jonas, Matthias


Jonas, Matthias : Autor ; Nahorski, Zbigniew Tadeusz : Autor ; Jęda, Waldemar Paweł : Autor


Instytut Badań Systemowych. Polska Akademia Nauk ; Systems Research Institute. Polish Academy of Sciences

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40 pages ; 21 cm ; Bibliography p. 40

Subject and Keywords:

Greenhouse gases emission ; Kyoto protocol ; Uncertainty ; Smoothing splines ; Variable parameter model


The parties that signed the Amex I to the Kyoto Protocol must report their emissions of the greenhouse gases each year. Uncertainty of reported values obtained by aggregation of the partial emissions from all processes and provided so far for several countries is very high. Independent calculation of the estimates could confirm or question the values obtained up to now. The aim of this paper it to investigate procedures for doing it. They are statistical procedures, which benefit from the yearly reported observations while assuming temporal smoothness of the emission curve. Another goal is to provide estimates of the real emissions. Which are more accurate than observed values and could be used in testing fulfilment if the Kyoto obligations. We consider two methods for empirical estimation of the standard deviation of the accounting errors. For this we use signal processing methods: a smoothing procedure based on the spline functions and a parametric model with a time-varying parameter. They are verified on historical observations of the greenhouse gas emissions from combustion of the fossil fuels. The results obtained are promising and give estimates of variances that agree well with those calculated by the aggregation of variances from the partial processes. A simple piecewise exponential model was found to fit well the data in the periods of steady growth or decay.


Raport Badawczy = Research Report

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Creative Commons Attribution BY 4.0 license

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Copyright-protected material. [CC BY 4.0] May be used within the scope specified in Creative Commons Attribution BY 4.0 license, full text available at: ; -

Digitizing institution:

Systems Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences

Original in:

Library of Systems Research Institute PAS

Projects co-financed by:

Operational Program Digital Poland, 2014-2020, Measure 2.3: Digital accessibility and usefulness of public sector information; funds from the European Regional Development Fund and national co-financing from the state budget.



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