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Niepewność ; Greenhouse gases emission ; Emisja gazów cieplarnianych ; Kyoto protocol ; Uncertainty ; Compliance ; Zgodność ; Zobowiązania do ograniczenia i redukcji emisji ; Emission limitation and reduction commitments ; Emissions change-uncertainty analysis ; Protokół z kioto
Our study is a preparatory exercise. We focus on the analysis of uncertainty in greenhouse gas emission inventories. Inventory uncertainty is monitored, but not regulated, under the Kyoto Protocol. For most countries under the Protocol the agreed emission changes are of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainty that underlies their combined (carbon dioxide—CO2 equivalent) emissions estimates. We compare six available techniques to analyze the uncertainty in the emission changes that countries agreed to realize by a specified point in time. Any such technique, if implemented, could ‘make or break’ claims of compliance, especially in cases where countries claim fulfillment of their commitments to reduce or limit emissions. The techniques all perform differently and can thus have a different impact on the design and execution of emission control policies. A thorough comparison of the techniques has not yet been made but is urgently needed to expand the discussion on how to go about dealing with uncertainty under the Kyoto Protocol and its successor.
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Projects co-financed by:
Operational Program Digital Poland, 2014-2020, Measure 2.3: Digital accessibility and usefulness of public sector information; funds from the European Regional Development Fund and national co-financing from the state budget.