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Uncertainty of reported greenhouse gases emissions obtained by aggregation of the partial emissions from all sources and estimated so far for several countries is very high. Independent calculation of the estimates could confirm or question the values obtained up to now. One of the aim of this paper is to propose statistical signal processing methods for doing it. They use the yearly reported observations while assuming temporal smoothness of the emission curve. The considered methods are: a spline function smoothing procedure, a time-varying parameter model, and the geometric Brownian motion model. They are verified on historical observations of the CO2 emissions from combustion of the fossil fuels. The obtained estimates of variances agree in the range with those obtained from national inventories. As an additional result, some regularities in observed curves were noticed.
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Projects co-financed by:
Operational Program Digital Poland, 2014-2020, Measure 2.3: Digital accessibility and usefulness of public sector information; funds from the European Regional Development Fund and national co-financing from the state budget.