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This paper presents an attempt to model the variability of certain environmental factors, such as wind force or water flow rate, by a semi-Markov process with finite state space. The model is based on the following premises. First, the range of possible values of a given factor is divided into a finite number of subintervals. Second, it is assumed that the length of time during which the factor’s value remains within one such interval, and the probabilities of transitions to neighboring intervals, depend on the factor’s earlier behavior. The model’s accuracy is determined by the number of subintervals and the assumed degree of the factor’s dependence on its history (the number of previously entered subintervals relevant to predicting the factor’s future behavior). According to the presupposed accuracy level the adequately complex state-space and the inter-state transitions diagram of the modeling process are constructed. Subsequently, it is demonstrated how certain parameters of that process, that can be used in power generation forecasting, can be calculated by means of the Laplace transform calculus.
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Operational Program Digital Poland, 2014-2020, Measure 2.3: Digital accessibility and usefulness of public sector information; funds from the European Regional Development Fund and national co-financing from the state budget.
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