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<dc:title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Przegląd Geograficzny T. 93 z. 1 (2021)]]></dc:title>
<dc:title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Wpływ warunków meteorologicznych na zachorowalność na grypę w wybranych polskich miastach = Impact of meteorological conditions on influenza morbidity in the selected Polish cities]]></dc:title>
<dc:title xml:lang="pl"><![CDATA[Przegląd Geograficzny T. 93 z. 1 (2021)]]></dc:title>
<dc:title xml:lang="pl"><![CDATA[Wpływ warunków meteorologicznych na zachorowalność na grypę w wybranych polskich miastach = Impact of meteorological conditions on influenza morbidity in the selected Polish cities]]></dc:title>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lindner-Cendrowska, Katarzyna. Autor]]></dc:creator>
<dc:subject xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[influenza]]></dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[morbidity]]></dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[meteorological conditions]]></dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Polish cities]]></dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[negative binomial regression]]></dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="pl"><![CDATA[grypa]]></dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="pl"><![CDATA[zachorowalność]]></dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="pl"><![CDATA[warunki meteorologiczne]]></dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="pl"><![CDATA[polskie miasta]]></dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="pl"><![CDATA[regresja ujemna dwumianowa]]></dc:subject>
<dc:description xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[24 cm]]></dc:description>
<dc:description xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[This study was designed to explore the impact of meteorological factors (air temperature, relative and absolute humidity, wind, cloudiness and precipitation) on influenza morbidity in four selected big cities in Poland – Cracow, Poznań, Warsaw and Wrocław. Atmospheric data obtained from four meteorological stations spread over six years (2013‑2018) were compared to influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reports, obtained from the Voivodship Units of the State Sanitary Inspection for the same locations and period. Data were analysed using Spearman correlation and negative binomial regressions to capture the nonlinear relationship between exposure to environmental conditions and influenza morbidity. Our study found a strong negative association of absolute air humidity with influenza infections (RR = 0.738) and positive relationship with minimal temperature (RR = 1.148). The effect of wind speed, cloudiness and precipitation on ILI was less evident. Proposed model is valid for all age groups in Polish cities, but suits the best to elderly citizens (65+). The model is also appropriate for different seasons, however only absolute humidity, minimal temperature and wind speed are considered significant variables all year round. Furthermore, we observed 6 to 9-days delay between particular adverse weather conditions and ILI morbidity increase, as 1-week lag model proved to have the highest predictive power (AIC = 8644.97). Although meteorological variables have statistically significant contribution to explain influenza morbidity, there are also other non-climatic factors, that can possibly influence the seasonality and complexity of influenza epidemiology in Polish cities.]]></dc:description>
<dc:description xml:lang="pl"><![CDATA[24 cm]]></dc:description>
<dc:description xml:lang="pl"><![CDATA[Celem opracowania jest ocean wpływu czynników meteorologicznych (temperatury powietrza, względnej i bezwzględnej wilgotności powietrza, prędkości wiatru, zachmurzenia i opadów) na zachorowalność na grypę w wybranych czterech dużych miastach w Polsce – Krakowie, Poznaniu, Warszawie i Wrocławiu. Dane meteorologiczne z czterech stacji IMGW, obejmujące sześć lat (2013‑2018) zostały zestawione z cotygodniowymi raportami wojewódzkich stacji sanitarno-epidemiologicznych o zachorowalności na grypę i choroby grypopodobne (ILI) z tego samego okresu. W celu uchwycenia nieliniowej zależności między ekspozycją na dane warunki atmosferyczne, a zapadalnością na grypę, przeprowadzono analizę materiału za pomocą korelacji Spearmana oraz uogólnionych modeli liniowych o rozkładzie ujemnym dwumianowym, wiązanych logarytmicznie. Wykazano silny ujemny związek między wilgotnością bezwzględną powietrza, a infekcjami grypowymi (RR = 0,738) oraz dodatnią relację między ILI a temperaturą minimalną (RR = 1,148). Wpływ prędkości wiatru, zachmurzenia i opadów na zachorowalność jest mniej oczywisty. Zaproponowany model może być z powodzeniem stosowany w odniesieniu do każdej grupy wiekowej mieszkańców polskich miast, lecz największą zgodność wykazuje w przypadku osób, mających co najmniej 65 lat (AIC = 6943,9). Model ten daje też dobre przybliżenie zachorowalności na grypę w poszczególnych porach roku, choć jedynie wilgotność bezwzględna powietrza, temperatura minimalna i prędkość wiatru są statystycznie istotne w ciągu całego roku. Co więcej, zaobserwowano, że najwyższą mocą predykcyjną (AIC = 8644,97) charakteryzował się model dla 1-tygodniowego przesunięcia czasowego między warunkami pogodowymi, sprzyjającymi rozprzestrzenianiu się wirusa, a wzrostem zachorowalności na ILI. Choć zmienne meteorologiczne są istotnymi statystycznie predykatorami zapadalności na infekcje grypowe, istnieją również pozaśrodowiskowe czynniki, które mogą znacznie wpływać na sezonowość i złożoność epidemii grypy w polskich miastach.]]></dc:description>
<dc:publisher><![CDATA[IGiPZ PAN]]></dc:publisher>
<dc:date><![CDATA[2021]]></dc:date>
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<dc:identifier><![CDATA[0033-2143 (print)]]></dc:identifier>
<dc:identifier><![CDATA[2300-8466 (on-line)]]></dc:identifier>
<dc:identifier><![CDATA[10.7163/PrzG.2021.1.6]]></dc:identifier>
<dc:identifier><![CDATA[https://rcin.org.pl/dlibra/publication/215378/edition/182729/content]]></dc:identifier>
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