TY - GEN A1 - Malinowski, Jacek PB - Instytut Badań Systemowych. Polska Akademia Nauk PB - Systems Research Institute. Polish Academy of Sciences N1 - 12 pages ; 21 cm N1 - Bibliography p. 12 N2 - This paper presents an attempt to model the variability of certain environmental factors, such as wind force or water flow rate, by a semi-Markov process with finite state space.The model’s accuracy is determined by the number of subintervals and the assumed degree of the factor’s dependence on its history (the number of previously entered subintervals relevant to predicting the factor’s future behavior). According to the presupposed accuracy level the adequately complex state-space and the inter-state transitions diagram of the modeling process are constructed. Subsequently, it is demonstrated how certain parameters of that process, that can be used in power generation forecasting, can be calculated by means of the Laplace transform calculus. L1 - http://www.rcin.org.pl/Content/102995/PDF/RB-2011-50.pdf M3 - Text CY - Warszawa J2 - Raport Badawczy = Research Report ; RB/50/2011 PY - 2011 KW - Semi-markov modeling KW - Renewable power generation KW - Wytwarzanie energii odnawialnej KW - Modelowanie semi-markowa T1 - Modeling variability of renewable energy sources by a semi-Markov process for power generation prediction UR - http://www.rcin.org.pl/dlibra/publication/edition/102995 ER -