@misc{Jęda_Waldemar_Paweł_Uncertainty_2002,
 author={Jęda, Waldemar Paweł and Jonas, Matthias and Nahorski, Zbigniew (1945– )},
 copyright={Creative Commons Attribution BY 4.0 license},
 address={Warszawa},
 journal={Raport Badawczy = Research Report},
 howpublished={online},
 year={2002},
 publisher={Instytut Badań Systemowych. Polska Akademia Nauk},
 publisher={Systems Research Institute. Polish Academy of Sciences},
 language={eng},
 abstract={The paper addresses the problem of verification of the Kyoto obligations, raising the point, that verification of the obligations cannot be done, when uncertainty of the reported values is not taken into account. A verification method is considered, based on setting a risk of not satisfying obligations, which should lead to the easy to check conditions, with deterministic or stochastic setup. The solution proposed concentrates in replacing the reduction rate by a linear combination of the reduction and uncertainty, with the exact proportions related to the risk that the real emission has not satisfied the obligations. In addition to that, the influence of this idea to new rules of emission trading is mentioned and a method for empirical estimation of the standard deviation of the reported errors is proposed. The method based on smoothing splines, followed by a parametric model of the exponential growth is presented and the results of its application are discussed.},
 title={Uncertainty and Dynamics under Kyoto Obligations},
 type={Text},
 URL={http://www.rcin.org.pl/Content/109483/PDF/RB-2002-65.pdf},
 keywords={Kyoto protocol, Carbon emission trading, Greenhouse gas inventory uncertainty, Effective tradable permits, Efektywne zezwolenia zbywalne, Protokół z kioto},
}